The global smartphone system on chip market is likely to face a challenging year in 2026 as shipments are projected to decline by around seven percent year on year, according to a fresh report from Counterpoint Research. The slowdown is largely attributed to rising memory prices caused by a severe RAM supply crunch, which is putting pressure on smartphone manufacturers, especially those operating in the entry level and budget segments.
Counterpoint’s Global Smartphone SoC Model Shipments and Revenue Tracker indicates that higher memory costs are squeezing margins for brands selling devices priced below $150, leading to a sharp drop in demand in this category. Memory suppliers and foundries are increasingly focusing on high margin products such as HBM to meet the growing requirements of AI data centres, which has further tightened supply for mobile components.
Despite this overall decline in shipment volumes, the report highlights that companies with in house chipset development capabilities including Samsung Google Huawei and Xiaomi may be better positioned to manage short term supply challenges. However Counterpoint cautions that even these brands may struggle to sustain production levels if the memory shortage continues for an extended period.
Interestingly the report paints a more optimistic picture for market revenue. Even with fewer chips being shipped overall the global smartphone SoC market is expected to record double digit revenue growth in 2026. This growth is being driven by strong consumer demand for premium and mid premium smartphones. Counterpoint analysts estimate that nearly one third of smartphones sold this year will carry a price tag above $500 reflecting a clear shift towards premiumisation.
As part of this trend flagship smartphones are expected to transition from 3nm to advanced 2nm chip technology in 2026. Samsung is anticipated to begin mass production of its next generation 2nm chipset reportedly named Exynos 2600 while other major players are also preparing to enter the 2nm race.
The premium smartphone shift is expected to work in favour of companies like Apple and Qualcomm which already dominate the high end segment. MediaTek is also closing the gap and is likely to strengthen its presence in premium Android devices. Meanwhile Samsung’s growing adoption of advanced manufacturing nodes aligns closely with its broader strategy to compete more aggressively in the flagship chipset space.
